The playbook has been clear, decisive and successful. Support opposition parties, arm resistance groups then take out the existing regime by wiping out its leaders and watch the country descend into chaos. Iraq, Libya and Syria one by one they all crumbled. But one didn’t or hasn’t yet. As they say in Kerala my home state in India jackfruits don’t fall on rabbits every time.
From being friends and partners in the 1970s during the Shah regime to becoming antagonists and eventually going to war with each other Iran and the US have had a tumultuous relationship over the past many decades. Politics in itself is complex and is intertwined with innumerable social aspects. Combine this political soup with foreign affairs and foreign policies and it becomes mind boggling.
Islam is broadly divided into the Sunni and Shia sects. Sunni sect is the dominant one and they account for 85-90% of the global Muslim population. Shia is the majority population in a few countries such as Iran and Iraq. The Sunni vs Shia theological divide has driven a regional power struggle between the Sunni dominated Saudi Arabia and the Shia dominated Iran in the Middle East.
So what did Iraq, Libya, Syria and Iran do to incur the wrath of the US? The narrative that has been sold to the world is, all these countries were ruled by cruel dictators, Iraq was developing weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and Iran is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. But the reality lies in a single word – petrodollar. After decades of wars between Israel and the Arab nations, the US came up with a double impact plan in the 1970s. The petrodollar agreement with the oil producing Arab countries which mandated all global oil sales to be conducted in US dollar not only consolidated it as the world’s primary reserve currency it also threw cold water on the animosity between Arab countries and Israel. But the 1979 coup in Iran that led to the overthrow of the US backed Shah government resulted in the formation of the hardline regime under Ayatollah Al Khamenei. The US did not have to worry though because it knew the Sunni dominated Arab world would never align with the Shia dominated Iran.
I remember reading somewhere that if the dominance of the dollar is even minutely challenged on the global stage the US will counter with bullets and missiles. After the Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi regimes were overthrown in Iraq and Libya respectively there were rumours that they were trying to end the petrodollar domination by replacing it with gold backed currencies. No WMDs were found in Iraq and US and Israeli intelligence agencies must have clearly known this well in advance.
Non-compliance in nuclear energy development may be just an excuse for attacking Iran. I believe there could be two reasons. 1) Israel has wanted to destroy Iran’s Khameni led regime and it’s military capability for decades. Iran is the only Arab country standing up to Israel by supporting and arming the Hezbollah and other Islamic groups fighting Israel. Only now has it found a US President and administration complacent enough to agree to its demand 2) The US has a far greater reason for attacking Iran. The emergence of BRICS. China has become equally powerful as the US both economically and in military might. It has been pushing to replace the dollar with the Chinese Yuan as the primary reserve currency. Many countries in Africa, South America and Iran have started using the Chinese Yuan when doing business with China. India has also bought oil from Iran by paying in Indian Rupees. China buys most of its oil from Iran and Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf into the open ocean. The US cannot go for an open military confrontation with China so the only other option is imposing economic controls.
Geopolitics is extremely complex and nuances are hard to explain so it’s easier to sell to the world that Iran is a rogue nation and needs to be brought in line. But what has happened after the US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Khameni and the top brass of the Iranian government has shocked the world. A short 4-5 days of military engagement has extended to more than 2 weeks now and shows no signs of abating. It has become more and more apparent that Iran has been prepared for a military conflict with the US and Israel with counter military strategies and by stockpiling weapons. It has clear knowledge of Israel’s assets in Israel and US assets in other Arab countries. It knows the US and Israel have deployed expensive air defence systems and are using cheap drones to attack which have ballooned the economic cost of war for both the US and Israel. Iran seems to have worked out their entire military strategy on one premise – attack us and all the oil producing Arab nations will burn effectively depleting oil supply to the world. To add insult to injury dictate terms over the Strait of Hormuz thereby choking all oil supplies from GCC.
Iran has repeatedly rejected ceasefire offers from the US and seemingly wants to end the conflict on its terms. It seems to be clearly prepared for a long drawn attritional war and the longer the conflict drags on the less leverage US and Israel will have on how the future plays out. If this conflict ends on Iran’s terms which looks to be the most likely outcome now a global shift in power is going to emerge.
Amidst the geopolitical tussle missiles and drones are taking lives of innocent people and children. The impact of reduced oil and gas supply from the Middle East is already showing in other countries. The economic cost of global politics and power has eroded away the cost of human lives to the point where missiles hitting schools and killing children could soon become foot notes on news channels.